November 2025
Cameron Kusher
This column is designed to give you the inside information on what the latest data shows and what you need to know for your discussions with buyers and vendors.
Here are the top five things to talk with your vendors about:
Interest rates
Although interest rates have fallen three times so far this year, any further interest rate relief seems some way off, if it happens at all. At the most recent Monetary Policy Board meeting the Board decided unanimously to keep official interest rates on-hold at 3.60 per cent.
The latest data on inflation has come in much stronger than anticipated and the quarterly spike in inflation over the September 2025 quarter is likely to see inflationary pressures remain elevated over the next year.
At the time of writing, the cash rate futures yield curve does not have a more than 50 per cent expectation of a rate cut until February of next year and at the moment the odds of a rate cut do not get to 100 per cent any time between now and April 2027.
This doesn’t mean we won’t get any further rate cuts, that will be data dependent, but based on current conditions the market expects that at most there will be on 25 basis point cut to rates next year. This is significantly less interest rate relief than the market had been expecting throughout most of 2025.
The factors that could see interest rates fall further is if the unemployment rate rises higher than expected and job creation slows or if inflationary pressures ease faster than expected.
The factors that could see interest rates rise are if the labour market remains tight, household spending and economic growth lifts and inflation continues to climb.
Melbourne property listings
The latest data from SQM Research for October 2025 found that there were 22,127 new listings in Melbourne which was 23.7 per cent higher over the month and 14.7 per cent higher than a year ago. The jump in new listings is seasonal but it is also much larger than the increase last year showing a level of confidence from vendors that they will be able to sell.
At the end of October 2025 there were 43,708 total property listings in Melbourne. The figure was 15.4 per cent higher over the month, mostly due to a rise in new listings, and 2.3 per cent higher than a year ago.
Total listing volumes in Melbourne remain somewhat elevated but they have been fairly steady over recent months. With transaction activity improving, I expect that the total supply of stock for sale will start to moderate, albeit at a slow pace, in early 2026.
While these figures represent what is happening across the whole metropolitan region of the city, individual markets are seeing quite varied conditions. As a trusted real estate professional, it is important you highlight to vendors, and potential vendors, local market dynamics of demand and supply.
Housing prices
The latest data shows that although median prices are typically climbing throughout the state, the rate of growth is still moderate compared to other states and territories which is improving the relative affordability of Victorian property.
In October 2025, the median house price in Melbourne was $936,000 and it had increased by 1.7 per cent over the previous three months and by 2.3 per cent over the past year. Median unit prices in Melbourne were $635,000 and they were 1.3 per cent higher over the three months and 0.8 per cent higher over the year.
In regional Victoria, median house prices in October 2025 were $620,000 and median unit prices were $429,000. House prices were 2.5 per cent higher over the quarter and 3.3 per cent higher over the year while unit prices were 2.1 per cent higher over both the quarter and year.
While some growth in prices is returning to the market, the rate of growth is continuing to lag that in most other states and territories. With the state’s population continuing to surge and affordability making housing in the state more appealing there is a good opportunity for those with a long-term hold strategy to purchase properties at an affordable price.
In many instances with build costs where they are, buyers would be purchasing at below replacement cost (that means you couldn’t acquire the land and build a new house for the same price as what you purchase it for).
Days on market
Despite a rise in the volume of stock on market for sale, properties in Melbourne are selling more quickly than they were three months and a year ago. Outside of Melbourne, the sales process is taking longer as buyers are lacking the same urgency.
In October 2025, the median days on market in Melbourne was 34 days, which was down from 38 days three months earlier and lower than the 43 days in October 2024 according to REIV data. In fact, the 34 days figure was the lowest days on market recorded since August 2023 which highlights the improved sentiment and rising demand for Melbourne property resulting in quicker sales.
In regional Victoria, median days on market was 53 days in October 2025, compared to 58 days three months earlier and 62 days in October 2024.
For vendors in Melbourne the message should be if your list price reflects market conditions you should expect ample demand and be able to sell relatively quickly in this market.
In regional Victoria price expectations are also important but it is likely to take a little longer to get a sale completed.
Investors are getting much more active in the state
The latest quarterly lending indicators data from the ABS for the September 2025 quarter showed that the value of new lending in Victoria was $38.4 billion which was the highest quarterly value since June 2022.
The value of lending to investors accounted for 33.9 per cent of total new lending in Victoria over the quarter. This was the greatest share of lending to investors since September 2017 and the value was 24.1 per cent higher over the year.
The value of lending to owner-occupier first home buyers was 4.9 per cent higher than a year ago and lending to owner-occupier non-first home buyers was 9.2 per cent.
This data pre-dates the introduction of the Home Guarantee Scheme in October 2025 which will likely see an increase in lending to first home buyers.
Despite ongoing punitive charges to investors in Victoria, demand for investment is lifting which is likely due to improving yields and the relative affordability of housing. If properties are likely to be attractive to investors it will be important to sell those credentials in the listing.
Here are the top five things to talk with your buyers about.
Price growth is starting to pick-up
Over the past few years, price growth throughout Victoria has been quite subdued but prices are now starting to rise once more, albeit growth remains moderate.
You will see the increase in demand reflected in more people attending open homes and more people bidding at open homes which means more competition for quality housing stock.
To give yourself the best chance at securing properties it is imperative to have your finances in place, submit offers early and submit competitive offers and try to best understand what the vendor is looking for and include settlement terms that will appeal to them.
While more stock is coming onto the market, given current conditions the longer you wait to secure a property the more likely it is you’ll be paying a higher price to secure it.
If you are waiting for interest rate cuts, you’ll be waiting some time and paying more for a property
Earlier this month the Reserve Bank decided to keep official interest rates on-hold and their comments suggest that they expect rates to remain on-hold for some time.
Inflation is elevated and will take some time to come back close to their target and unemployment remains very low suggesting there is currently little need to lower rates further.
In fact, it may be a case that there are no further interest rate cuts, if they do happen its likely to be well into next year. This is a stark difference for interest rate expectations through much of the year whereby the market expected two additional rate cuts this year and another one or two next year.
If you are waiting for additional interest rate reductions to purchase, these might not happen at all and if they do, by the time they are cut its likely you’ll be paying more for the property.
If your finances can’t stretch as far as you’d like it may be time to reassess the type of property you’re trying to buy and the location in which you’re trying to purchase.
Demand for properties is rising, particularly from investors and first home buyers
The latest lending data for the September 2025 quarter shows that the value of lending for mortgages in Victoria was the highest it has been since June 2022.
Importantly, this data pre-dates the introduction of the Home Guarantee Scheme for first home buyers at the start of October.
Investors have been the most active segment of the market, accounting for their greatest share of new lending since the September 2017 quarter and with the total value of lending 24.1 per cent higher over the year.
By comparison, lending to owner-occupier first home buyers was 4.9 per cent higher than a year ago and lending to owner-occupier non-first home buyers was 9.2 per cent.
The more affordable housing in Victoria and historically quite high rental yields is attracting increased levels of investor interest. From here it is likely first home buyer purchasing will also lift due to the new government support.
If you are a first home buyer, it will be difficult to compete with the purchasing power of existing home owners so get offers in early and have competitive terms.
For investors you are likely to be competing with other investors and first home buyers for stock so expect lots of competition for high quality stock.
Melbourne properties are selling quicker whilst negotiation still takes some time regionally
Melbourne’s median days on market in October 2025 was 34 days which was the lowest it has been since August 2023, highlighting the higher level of demand for housing.
This means that there is heightened competition for stock and that vendors are getting attractive offers and coming to an agreement on sale price sooner. As a result, it is important to offer on properties that you desire sooner and with a more competitive price.
In regional Victoria it is a bit of a different story. Median days on market was 53 days in October 2025, compared to 58 days three months earlier and 62 days in October 2024.
Regional buyers are likely to have more scope to negotiate on price and have less overall competition to buy.
Homes are selling quicker, even as more stock comes to the market
The latest listings data from SQM Research found that new listing volumes relative to October of last year were 14.7 per cent higher and total listing volumes were up by 2.3 per cent.
Even though stock levels remain elevated across the state and more vendors are willing to bring properties to the market, properties are also selling more quickly.
This reflects the fact that well priced properties and those in which vendors are willing to adjust prices to meet the market are seeing strong competition from buyers and are selling quickly.
For a buyer this again indicates that purchasing a home is likely to be more competitive than it has been for some time and submitting competitive offers with attractive terms is key to securing a property in this market.
About Cameron Kusher
Over the last 20 years Cameron has worked as a property researcher for major businesses such as PRDnationwide, CoreLogic (now Cotality) and REA Group.
Cameron spent 12 years at CoreLogic as the Head of Research for Australia and 5.5 years at REA Group as the Director of Economic Research. Over the past 17 years he has become a well-regarded thought-leader on the residential property market and delivered thousands of presentations to the industry, customers and consumers.
He is passionate about taking complex economic and property insights and making them easy for anyone to understand, free of the jargon that most economic and property presentations tend to contain.