Cash Rate Decision
On April 1st, 2025, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the cash rate at 4.10 percent, following a 25-basis-point reduction in February 2025. The RBA has observed easing inflationary trends set against ongoing economic uncertainties. While domestic demand is recovering and financial pressures are easing, tight labour market conditions and high labour costs remain concerns. Global risks, including U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical uncertainties, add further complexity. The RBA remains cautious, prioritising inflation control while monitoring economic data closely. Findings from the RBA’s Monetary Policy Decision statement noted that it is resolute in its determination to sustainably return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that outcome.
What Impacted the RBA’s Decision
The RBA noted that labour market conditions remain tight despite declining employment in February. Wage pressures have eased more than expected, but productivity has not increased. Growth in household consumption is set to continue as income growth rises. However, risks are apparent if consumption is slower than expected, leading to subdued economic growth and a deterioration in the labour market.
The RBA is concerned about uncertainties regarding the lag of monetary policy's effects and subsequent impacts on business decisions around pricing and wages. Macroeconomic concerns include recent announcements from the United States on tariffs and their knock-on effect on global confidence across markets. This will be amplified if the scope of the United States’ tariffs increases or if retaliatory measures are implemented.
Long-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target. They align with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment while pursuing sustainable inflation within a reasonable timeframe.
Moving Forward
As the RBA’s determinations around the cash rate continue to affect many of the real estate sector's stakeholders, including their borrowing power and capacity to service mortgage repayments, the REIV will keep its membership informed on the RBA’s decisions. The RBA has indicated that the consumer price index currently sits at 2.4 per cent and that returning inflation to its target is the RBA’s highest priority. The RBA has committed to its 2 – 3 per cent target range for inflation and anticipates reaching the midpoint by 2026, with current inflationary pressures declining in line with those forecasts. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) will release its next quarterly inflation update on April 30th. With the next cash rate decision scheduled for May 20th, 2025, market participants will closely watch how monetary policy evolves, particularly as inflationary pressures continue to ease.