Cash Rate Decision
On February 18th, 2025, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowered the cash rate to 4.10 per cent. This is the first change in the cash rate since November 2023 and the first reduction in the cash rate since November 2020. It reflects the central bank's confidence that underlying inflation is substantially moderating, as reflected in easing through 2024. The RBA’s statement indicated that underlying inflation is currently at 3.2 per cent and moving sustainably towards the midpoint of the 2-3 per cent target range. Findings from the RBA’s Monetary Policy Decision statement noted that subdued growth in private demand and easing wage pressures gave the Board the confidence to reduce the cash rate.
What Impacted the RBA’s Decision
The RBA noted that labour market conditions remain tight and have tightened further since late 2024. Reporting showed that labour is still a significant constraint for businesses, and productivity growth has not picked up, implying growth in labour costs. Growth in output has remained weak, private domestic demand is recovering slowly, and there is uncertainty over the extent to which the late 2024 recovery in household spending will persist.
The RBA indicated that the Australian economy is anticipated to continue picking up, though this is set against an uncertain global economic backdrop. This reflects ongoing concerns within the RBA about forecasting around significant trading partners and includes unpredictable geopolitical and policy implications. Even with an anticipated minor increase in unemployment over 2024, the unemployment rate is expected to stabilise at slightly above 4 per cent over the year. Expected economic growth over the next few years will continue supporting the job market's strength.
It is projected that household consumption growth will increase as income rises. However, there is a risk that consumption may recover slower than expected, subduing output growth and causing a deterioration in the labour market. These are among the factors that the RBA is analysing that directly interact with the real estate sector as they impact people’s ability to maintain commitments in the property market. Despite these pressures, the RBA remains confident in its projections that inflation will continue to moderate.
Moving Forward
As the RBA’s determinations around the cash rate continue to affect many of the real estate sector's stakeholders, including their borrowing power and capacity to service mortgage repayments, the REIV will keep its membership informed on the RBA’s decisions. The RBA has indicated that the consumer price index currently sits at 2.4 per cent and that returning inflation to its target is the RBA’s highest priority. The RBA has committed to its 2-3 per cent target range for inflation and anticipates reaching the midpoint by 2026, with current inflationary pressures declining in line with those forecasts. With the next cash rate decision scheduled for 1st April 2025, market participants will closely watch how monetary policy evolves, particularly as inflationary pressures adjust. The newly established monetary board will provide the next cash rate decision. The RBA’s website has more information.